Optimisation of network systems for gas and water allocation and spot price dynamic modelling.

Plummer, J 2013, Optimisation of network systems for gas and water allocation and spot price dynamic modelling., Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences, RMIT University.

Document type: Thesis
Collection: Theses

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Title Optimisation of network systems for gas and water allocation and spot price dynamic modelling.
Author(s) Plummer, J
Year 2013
Abstract This thesis studies the network of high pressure gas transmission pipelines in eastern Australia and the network of irrigation channels in the Goulbum-Murray irrigation district. The objective is to advance the study of network allocation systems. The research questions examined focus on three problems, optimising the delivery of commodities through networks, the optimisation of the cost of supply, and the modelling of prices of commodities that rely on network structures for delivery. A significant part of this research involves the collation of modelling data for the eastern Australian gas network. Three research questions will be addressed. The first research problem is to estimate the price of irrigation water at the start of the irrigation season. Water allocated to holders of water entitlements in the Goulburn- Murray irrigation district are traded on a market exchange. This market has matured to the point where new products based on the water allocations can be introduced which is one of the objectives stated in The Intergovernmental Agreement on a National Water Initiative. The second research question addressed is the absence of a model for simulating the spot price of wholesale natural gas sold in the Victorian declared wholesale gas market. In this thesis a model to simulate this price is presented. With this model holders of a portfolio of energy contracts will now have the ability to ascertain the potential losses they may be exposed to in the spot market. In the third research problem addressed in this thesis, the optimal routing of natural gas to the major demand centres in eastern Australia is addressed. Two formulations are presented with the first focussing on minimising shortfalls on days of simultaneous peak demand across all demand centres. Annual growth factors are applied to current peak day estimates and the model is run for each of the next 20 years and the size of any shortfalls are quantified. The network components that are causing the shortfalls are identified. In the second model the cost of supplying current peak day demand is minimised and the sensitivity of the solution to changes in production costs at supply nodes is discussed. The production costs are the most variable cost in the supply of natural gas. Gas resources are unique and finite and as different gas reservoirs are discovered and depleted the production costs of different gas basins changes.
Degree Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Institution RMIT University
School, Department or Centre Mathematical and Geospatial Sciences
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