Treasury forecasts of company tax revenue: back of the envelope or back to the drawing board?

Davidson, S 2012, 'Treasury forecasts of company tax revenue: back of the envelope or back to the drawing board?', Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform, vol. 19, no. 2, pp. 53-61.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Treasury forecasts of company tax revenue: back of the envelope or back to the drawing board?
Author(s) Davidson, S
Year 2012
Journal name Agenda: A Journal of Policy Analysis and Reform
Volume number 19
Issue number 2
Start page 53
End page 61
Total pages 9
Publisher Australian National University * College of Business and Economics
Abstract The last decade has seen Treasury make large forecast errors when forecasting company tax receipts. This paper demonstrates the source of those errors: Treasury does not model the actual company tax base but rather estimates growth rates for aggregate measures and then makes ad hoc adjustments to Gross Operating Surplus to estimate taxable income. The consequence of this forecasting strategy is that Treasury does not have a detailed understanding of the company income tax
Subject Applied Economics not elsewhere classified
Keyword(s) Policy
Copyright notice © 2012 ANU E-Press and individual authors
ISSN 1322-1833
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