Saltelli global sensitivity analysis and simulation modelling to identify intervention strategies to reduce the prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 contaminated beef carcasses

Brookes, V, Jordan, D, Davis, S, Ward, M and Heller, J 2015, 'Saltelli global sensitivity analysis and simulation modelling to identify intervention strategies to reduce the prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 contaminated beef carcasses', PLoS ONE, vol. 10, no. 12, e0146016, pp. 1-22.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Attached Files
Name Description MIMEType Size
n2006059178.pdf Published Version application/pdf 2.00MB
Title Saltelli global sensitivity analysis and simulation modelling to identify intervention strategies to reduce the prevalence of Escherichia coli O157 contaminated beef carcasses
Author(s) Brookes, V
Jordan, D
Davis, S
Ward, M
Heller, J
Year 2015
Journal name PLoS ONE
Volume number 10
Issue number 12
Article Number e0146016
Start page 1
End page 22
Total pages 22
Publisher Public Library of Science
Abstract Introduction Strains of Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli O157 (STEC O157) are important foodborne pathogens in humans, and outbreaks of illness have been associated with consumption of undercooked beef. Here, we determine the most effective intervention strategies to reduce the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated beef carcasses using a modelling approach. Method A computational model simulated events and processes in the beef harvest chain. Information from empirical studies was used to parameterise the model. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Saltelli method identified variables with the greatest influence on the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated carcasses. Following a baseline scenario (no interventions), a series of simulations systematically introduced and tested interventions based on influential variables identified by repeated Saltelli GSA, to determine the most effective intervention strategy. Results Transfer of STEC O157 from hide or gastro-intestinal tract to carcass (improved abattoir hygiene) had the greatest influence on the prevalence of contaminated carcases. Due to interactions between inputs (identified by Saltelli GSA), combinations of interventions based on improved abattoir hygiene achieved a greater reduction in maximum prevalence than would be expected from an additive effect of single interventions. The most effective combination was improved abattoir hygiene with vaccination, which achieved a greater than ten-fold decrease in maximum prevalence compared to the baseline scenario. Conclusion Study results suggest that effective interventions to reduce the prevalence of STEC O157 contaminated carcasses should initially be based on improved abattoir hygiene. However, the effect of improved abattoir hygiene on the distribution of STEC O157 concentration on carcasses is an important information gap—further empirical research is required to determine whether reduced prevalence of contaminated carcasses is likely to result in reduced incidence of STEC O157 associated illness in humans. This is the first use of variance-based GSA to assess the drivers of STEC O157 contamination of beef carcasses.
Subject Public Health and Health Services not elsewhere classified
DOI - identifier 10.1371/journal.pone.0146016
Copyright notice © 2015 Brookes et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License.
ISSN 1932-6203
Versions
Version Filter Type
Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 1 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 1 times in Scopus Article | Citations
Altmetric details:
Access Statistics: 37 Abstract Views, 4 File Downloads  -  Detailed Statistics
Created: Fri, 04 Mar 2016, 10:25:00 EST by Catalyst Administrator
© 2014 RMIT Research Repository • Powered by Fez SoftwareContact us