Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

Rahmat, S, Jayasuriya, N and Bhuiyan, M 2017, 'Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, vol. 129, no. 1-2, pp. 445-457.

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia
Author(s) Rahmat, S
Jayasuriya, N
Bhuiyan, M
Year 2017
Journal name Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume number 129
Issue number 1-2
Start page 445
End page 457
Total pages 13
Publisher Springer Wien
Abstract A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.
Subject Water Resources Engineering
Civil Engineering not elsewhere classified
Keyword(s) Markov chain model
Meteorological drought
Short-term drought forecasting
Standardised Precipitation Index
DOI - identifier 10.1007/s00704-016-1785-y
Copyright notice © Springer-Verlag Wien 2016
ISSN 1434-4483
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