Optimal profile limits for maternal mortality rate (MMR) in South Sudan

Makuei, G, ABDOLLAHIAN, M and Marion, K 2018, 'Optimal profile limits for maternal mortality rate (MMR) in South Sudan', BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 1-12.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

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Title Optimal profile limits for maternal mortality rate (MMR) in South Sudan
Author(s) Makuei, G
ABDOLLAHIAN, M
Marion, K
Year 2018
Journal name BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth
Volume number 18
Issue number 1
Start page 1
End page 12
Total pages 12
Publisher BioMed Central
Abstract © 2018 The Author(s). Background: Reducing Maternal Mortality Rate (MMR) is considered by the international community as one of the eight Millennium Development Goals. Based on previous studies, Skilled Assistant at Birth (SAB), General Fertility Rate (GFR) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have been identified as the most significant predictors of MMR in South Sudan. This paper aims for the first time to develop profile limits for the MMR in terms of significant predictors SAB, GFR, and GDP. The paper provides the optimal values of SAB and GFR for a given MMR level. Methods: Logarithmic multi- regression model is used to model MMR in terms of SAB, GFR and GDP. Data from 1986 to 2015 collected from Juba Teaching Hospital was used to develop the model for predicting MMR. Optimization procedures are deployed to attain the optimal level of SAB and GFR for a given MMR level. MATLAB was used to conduct the optimization procedures. The optimized values were then used to develop lower and upper profile limits for yearly MMR, SAB and GFR. Results: The statistical analysis shows that increasing SAB by 1.22% per year would decrease MMR by 1.4% (95% CI (0.4-5%)) decreasing GFR by 1.22% per year would decrease MMR by 1.8% (95% CI (0.5-6.26%)). The results also indicate that to achieve the UN recommended MMR levels of minimum 70 and maximum 140 by 2030, the government should simultaneously reduce GFR from the current value of 175 to 97 and 75, increase SAB from the current value of 19 to 50 and 76. Conclusions: This study for the first time has deployed optimization procedures to develop lower and upper yearly profile limits for maternal mortality rate targeting the UN recommended lower and upper MMR levels by 2030. The MMR profile limits have been accompanied by the profile limits for optimal yearly values of SAB and GFR levels. Having the optimal level of predictors that significantly influence the maternal mortality rate can effectively aid the government and international org
Subject Applied Statistics
Keyword(s) Ln multi-regression
Maternal mortality rate
Optimisation
Profile limits
South Sudan
DOI - identifier 10.1186/s12884-018-1892-0
Copyright notice © The Author(s). 2018 Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.
ISSN 1471-2393
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