A Method for Predicting Rain-induced Instability of an Individual Slope

Suryo, E, Gallage, C and Trigunarsyah, B 2013, 'A Method for Predicting Rain-induced Instability of an Individual Slope', in Paul H. Barnes and Ashantha Goonetilleke (ed.) Proceedings of the 9th International Conference of the International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction (IIIRR 2013), Brisbane, Australia, 8-11 July 2013, pp. 1-10.


Document type: Conference Paper
Collection: Conference Papers

Title A Method for Predicting Rain-induced Instability of an Individual Slope
Author(s) Suryo, E
Gallage, C
Trigunarsyah, B
Year 2013
Conference name IIIRR 2013
Conference location Brisbane, Australia
Conference dates 8-11 July 2013
Proceedings title Proceedings of the 9th International Conference of the International Institute for Infrastructure Renewal and Reconstruction (IIIRR 2013)
Editor(s) Paul H. Barnes and Ashantha Goonetilleke
Publisher Queensland University of Technology
Place of publication Brisbane, Australia
Start page 1
End page 10
Total pages 10
Abstract Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.
Subjects Civil Geotechnical Engineering
Keyword(s) numerical analysis
rain-induced slope instability
real-time prediction
ISBN 9781921897733
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