Influence of Stochastic Dependence on Small-Disturbance Stability and Ranking Uncertainties

Hasan, K and Preece, R 2018, 'Influence of Stochastic Dependence on Small-Disturbance Stability and Ranking Uncertainties', IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, vol. 33, no. 3, pp. 3227-3235.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Influence of Stochastic Dependence on Small-Disturbance Stability and Ranking Uncertainties
Author(s) Hasan, K
Preece, R
Year 2018
Journal name IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
Volume number 33
Issue number 3
Start page 3227
End page 3235
Total pages 9
Publisher IEEE
Abstract A high level of stochastic dependence (or correlation) exists between different uncertainties (i.e., loads and renewable generation), which is nonlinear and non-Gaussian and it affects power system stability. Accurate modeling of stochastic dependence becomes more important and influential as the penetration of correlated uncertainties (such as renewable generation) increases in the network. The stochastic dependence between uncertainties can be modeled using 1) copula theory and 2) joint probability distributions. These methods have been implemented in this paper and their performances have been compared in assessing the small-disturbance stability of a power system. The value of modeling stochastic dependence with increased renewables has been assessed. Subsequently, the critical uncertainties that most affect the damping of the most critical oscillatory mode have been identified and ranked in terms of their influence using advanced global sensitivity analysis techniques. This has enabled the quantification and identification of the impact of modeling stochastic dependence on the raking of critical uncertainties. The results suggest that multivariate Gaussian copula is the most suitable approach for modeling correlation as it shows consistently low error even at higher levels of renewable energy penetration into the power system.
Subject Renewable Power and Energy Systems Engineering (excl. Solar Cells)
Keyword(s) Copula
Correlation
Probabilistic assessment
Sensitivity analysis
Small-disturbance stability
Stochastic dependence
Uncertainty
DOI - identifier 10.1109/TPWRS.2017.2779887
Copyright notice © Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License
ISSN 0885-8950
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