Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production-Comparisons of four models

Mohr, S, Hook, M, Mudd, G and Evans, G 2011, 'Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production-Comparisons of four models', International Journal of Coal Geology, vol. 86, no. 4, pp. 329-341.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Projection of long-term paths for Australian coal production-Comparisons of four models
Author(s) Mohr, S
Hook, M
Mudd, G
Evans, G
Year 2011
Journal name International Journal of Coal Geology
Volume number 86
Issue number 4
Start page 329
End page 341
Total pages 13
Publisher Elsevier
Abstract Coal exports are an important source of revenue for Australia and for this reason Australian coal production and resources have been examined in detail and two recoverable resource estimates determined namely Standard and High. The Standard case calculated the likely recoverable coal resources in Australia to be 317. Gt, whereas the High scenario determined the maximal amount of recoverable coal resources at 367. Gt. Different modelling approaches (Logistic, Gompertz, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models) were used to project fossil fuel production and the projections of the relative approaches were compared. Good agreement was found between the Logistic, Static and Dynamic supply and demand models with production peaking in 2119 ± 6 at between 1.9 and 3.3. Gt/y. Contrasting these projections the Gompertz curves peak in 2084 ± 5 at 1-1.1. Gt/y. It was argued that the Logistic, Static and Dynamic models are more likely to produce accurate projections than the Gompertz curve. The production forecast is based on existing technology and constraints and a qualitative discussion is presented on possible influences on future production, namely: export capacity, climate change, overburden management, environmental and social impacts and export market issues.
Subject Environmental Engineering not elsewhere classified
Keyword(s) Australia
Coal production
Coal reserves
Modelling
Peak coal
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.coal.2011.03.006
Copyright notice © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
ISSN 0166-5162
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