Inferring extinctions II: A practical, iterative model based on records and surveys

Thompson, C, Koshkina, V, Burgman, M, Butchart, S and Stone, L 2017, 'Inferring extinctions II: A practical, iterative model based on records and surveys', Biological Conservation, vol. 214, pp. 328-335.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Inferring extinctions II: A practical, iterative model based on records and surveys
Author(s) Thompson, C
Koshkina, V
Burgman, M
Butchart, S
Stone, L
Year 2017
Journal name Biological Conservation
Volume number 214
Start page 328
End page 335
Total pages 8
Publisher Elsevier BV
Abstract Extinctions are difficult to observe. Estimating the probability that a taxon has gone extinct using data from the field aids prioritisation of conservation interventions and environmental monitoring. There have been recent advances in approaches to estimating this probability from records. However, complete assessment requires consideration of the type, timing and certainty of records, the timing, scope and severity of threats, and the timing, extent and reliability of surveys. Until recently, no single method could integrate these different sources and qualities of data into a single measure. Here we describe a new, accessible method for estimating the probability that a taxon is extinct based on different kinds of both record and survey data, and accounting for data quality. The model takes into account uncertainties in input parameter estimates and provides bounds on estimates of the extinction probability. We illustrate application of the model using information for the Alaotra Grebe Tachybaptus rufolavatus. Application of this approach should facilitate more efficient allocation of conservation resources by enabling scenario analyses that inform investments in searches and management interventions for potentially extinct taxa. It should also provide more reliable estimates of recent extinction rates.
Subject Environmental Sciences not elsewhere classified
Keyword(s) Conservation
Extinct
IUCN red list
Model
Probability of extinction
Searches
Threatened species
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.biocon.2017.07.029
Copyright notice © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
ISSN 0006-3207
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