Designing an integrated urban growth prediction model: a scenario-based approach for preserving scenic landscapes

Saeidi, S, Mirkarimi, S, Mohammadzadeh, M, Salmanmahiny, A and Arrowsmith, C 2018, 'Designing an integrated urban growth prediction model: a scenario-based approach for preserving scenic landscapes', Geocarto International, vol. 33, no. 12, pp. 1381-1397.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Designing an integrated urban growth prediction model: a scenario-based approach for preserving scenic landscapes
Author(s) Saeidi, S
Mirkarimi, S
Mohammadzadeh, M
Salmanmahiny, A
Arrowsmith, C
Year 2018
Journal name Geocarto International
Volume number 33
Issue number 12
Start page 1381
End page 1397
Total pages 17
Publisher Taylor and Francis
Abstract This study demonstrates the integration of landscape aesthetic quality and probable urban growth patterns in urban landscape modelling. This was performed using SLEUTH as a scenario-based urban growth model in Gorgan City of Iran. Future urbanization was predicted under developing three different scenarios including historical, managed and aesthetically sound urban growth up to the year 2030. Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network model was conducted for mapping the aesthetic suitability of the study area. The aesthetic suitability layer was used in the third scenario of SLEUTH model as the excluded layer to protect the scenic patches in future. The results showed that by correct implementation of urban growth policies, 323 ha in the second scenario and 650 ha in the third scenario would be saved. This integrated model would help the planners for a better management of urban landscapes as a Spatial Decision Support System.
Subject Geospatial Information Systems
Urban Analysis and Development
Keyword(s) Iran
landscape aesthetic suitability
SLEUTH
Urban growth scenarios
DOI - identifier 10.1080/10106049.2017.1353647
Copyright notice © 2017 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor and Francis Group
ISSN 1010-6049
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