Bayesian updating to estimate extinction from sequential observation data

Thompson, C, Kodikara, S, Burgman, M, Demirhan, H and Stone, L 2019, 'Bayesian updating to estimate extinction from sequential observation data', Biological Conservation, vol. 229, pp. 26-29.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Bayesian updating to estimate extinction from sequential observation data
Author(s) Thompson, C
Kodikara, S
Burgman, M
Demirhan, H
Stone, L
Year 2019
Journal name Biological Conservation
Volume number 229
Start page 26
End page 29
Total pages 4
Publisher Elsevier BV
Abstract Several new approaches to estimating the probability that a species is extinct have emerged recently. Different foundational assumptions can lead to different interpretations of data and potentially to different conclusions. To explore the implications of alternative formulations, here we develop and illustrate a Bayesian Updating method for inferring extinction based on records of observations and surveys. We illustrate how it combines incidental sightings and surveys with a data set for the Alaotra Grebe, showing how estimates of extinction may be updated as new data arise, providing a means for managers to reassess priorities for survey and management dynamically.
Subject Applied Statistics
Ecology not elsewhere classified
Keyword(s) Bayes Factors
Bayes rule
Dynamic updating
Extinction
Observations
Surveys
Threatened species
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.11.003
Copyright notice © 2018 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
ISSN 0006-3207
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