Uncertainty and Trade: Evidence from Germany

Nguyen, B 2018, 'Uncertainty and Trade: Evidence from Germany', The Empirical Economics Letters, vol. 17, no. 10, pp. 1245-1252.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Uncertainty and Trade: Evidence from Germany
Author(s) Nguyen, B
Year 2018
Journal name The Empirical Economics Letters
Volume number 17
Issue number 10
Start page 1245
End page 1252
Total pages 8
Publisher Rajshahi University
Abstract This paper quantifies the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty shocks on the disaggregated German import flows. Structural VAR (SVAR) estimations reveal that a one standard deviation increase in macroeconomic uncertainty induces a decline in total import, import of intermediate manufacturing goods and import of final manufacturing goods by 1.04%, 1.43% and 1.44%, respectively. The findings suggest that uncertainty shocks in one country affect production in another through the trade channel.
Subject Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)
Keyword(s) Uncertainty
Structural Vector Autoregressions
Disaggregated Import Flows
Spillover Effects
Copyright notice © 2018 The Empirical Economics Letters
ISSN 1681-8997
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