Hitting the Great Wall: Structural change and China's growth slowdown

Ye, L and Robertson, P 2019, 'Hitting the Great Wall: Structural change and China's growth slowdown', China Economic Review, vol. 56, pp. 1-19.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Hitting the Great Wall: Structural change and China's growth slowdown
Author(s) Ye, L
Robertson, P
Year 2019
Journal name China Economic Review
Volume number 56
Start page 1
End page 19
Total pages 19
Publisher Elsevier BV
Abstract China is facing slowing growth rates, slowing rates of rural to urban migration and resistance to reforms that would liberalize internal migration restrictions (Hukou). We use a two sector Ramsey growth model and show that, allowing for endogenous capital accumulation, labour reallocation has accounted for approximately one fifth of China's per capita GDP growth over the last 30 years, and that Hukou reform could generate a significant boost to China's per capita GDP growth over the next decade. Our results contrast with conclusions drawn from the traditional growth accounting literature on labour reallocation effects in China because our simulation method allows for endogenous capital accumulation dynamics.
Subject Economic Development and Growth
Keyword(s) Capital accumulation
China
Dual economy
Economic growth
Structural change
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101302
Copyright notice © 20219 Elsevier
ISSN 1043-951X
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