A predictive method for the estimation of material demand for aircraft non-routine maintenance

Zorgdrager, M, Curran, R, Verhagen, W, Boesten, B and Water, C 2013, 'A predictive method for the estimation of material demand for aircraft non-routine maintenance', in Cees Bil, John Mo, Josip Stjepandić (ed.) Proceedings of the 20th ISPE International Conference on Concurrent Engineering (CE 2013), Delft, Netherlands, 2-6 September 2013, pp. 507-516.


Document type: Conference Paper
Collection: Conference Papers

Title A predictive method for the estimation of material demand for aircraft non-routine maintenance
Author(s) Zorgdrager, M
Curran, R
Verhagen, W
Boesten, B
Water, C
Year 2013
Conference name CE 2013
Conference location Delft, Netherlands
Conference dates 2-6 September 2013
Proceedings title Proceedings of the 20th ISPE International Conference on Concurrent Engineering (CE 2013)
Editor(s) Cees Bil, John Mo, Josip Stjepandić
Publisher IOS Press
Place of publication Amsterdam, Netherlands
Start page 507
End page 516
Total pages 10
Abstract A method is developed to forecast material demand caused by aircraft non-routine maintenance. Non-routine material consumption is linked to scheduled maintenance tasks to gain insight in demand patterns. Subsequently, a suitable prediction model can be applied to forecast material demand. To test this approach, a structural part selection of the Boeing 737NG fleet of KLM Royal Dutch Airlines has been sampled to form a test case. Several regression and stochastic models have been applied to the part selection to judge model fit and validity. Resulting from this analysis, the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) was chosen as superior model for its small error values and ability to capture general demand trends. The forecast method incorporating the EMA model has been validated by forecasting and comparison against an independent dataset. Concluding, the non-routine maintenance forecast method, comprising the non-routine material consumption forecasts linked to scheduled maintenance tasks, can be used to produce material predictions expressed in probability and average quantity figures for upcoming maintenance checks.
Subjects Aerospace Engineering not elsewhere classified
DOI - identifier 10.3233/978-1-61499-302-5-507
Copyright notice © 2013 The Authors and IOS Press. Open Access by IOS Press and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License
ISBN 9781614993018
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