Long run trends in Victorian housing affordability and first transition

Wood, G and Stoakes, A 2006, 'Long run trends in Victorian housing affordability and first transition', Urban Policy and Research, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 325-340.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Long run trends in Victorian housing affordability and first transition
Author(s) Wood, G
Stoakes, A
Year 2006
Journal name Urban Policy and Research
Volume number 24
Issue number 3
Start page 325
End page 340
Total pages 16
Publisher Routledge
Abstract The recent house price cycle has highlighted concerns about housing affordability. But is the recent deterioration in housing affordability a short-term problem, or is it a continuation of long-term trends? We take advantage of customised data tables from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing to address this question. We focus on the state of Victoria, Australia, by comparing housing affordability and tenure share trends from 1981 to 2001, a period which encompasses two house price booms. Specifically, we look at households by income quintiles and age group in Victoria. We find that housing affordability has deteriorated, particularly for those in the lowest two income quintiles. Most importantly, deterioration is not restricted to one inter-census period. It is a trend that is evident through most inter-census periods from 1981 to 2001. Furthermore, we find that among younger households, those under 35 years of age, the share of home purchasers and outright owners is in long-run decline. The long-run trends in housing affordability pose a serious threat to the homeownership aspirations of younger Victorians.
Subject Public Policy
Policy and Administration not elsewhere classified
Urban and Regional Planning not elsewhere classified
Keyword(s) house price cycle
housing affordability
home ownership
long-run trends
tenure share trends
Victoria
DOI - identifier 10.1080/08111140600876927
Copyright notice © 2006 Editorial Board, Urban Policy and Research
ISSN 0811-1146
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