The long downward wave of the world economy and the future of global conflicts

Patomaki, H 2005, 'The long downward wave of the world economy and the future of global conflicts', Globalizations, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 61-78.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title The long downward wave of the world economy and the future of global conflicts
Author(s) Patomaki, H
Year 2005
Journal name Globalizations
Volume number 2
Issue number 1
Start page 61
End page 78
Total pages 18
Publisher Routlegde
Abstract Globalization as a political project rests on claims that liberalization and economic interdependence are conducive to peace and prosperity. Yet more 'globalization' seems to mean less economic growth and more inequalities. I portray first the downward phase that started in the 1970s and discuss the so-called Kondratieff cycles, arguing that they are best understood as mere trend-spotting observations which in themselves explain very little. Next, I propose an explanatory model. The complex that has produced the long downward phase includes the prevailing economic policies; tendencies towards rising inequalities and, consequently, under-consumption; decline in the marginal productivity of capital; and the uncertainty and risks caused by global finance. I also put these elements into a concrete world historical context, focusing in particular on the positioning of the US in the global political economy. Finally, I explain why a new upward wave looks unlikely. On the initiative of the ever-stronger transnational management class, and under the leadership of the US, a worldwide framework of institutional arrangements has been created that, among other things, prevents a turn to a new genuinely upward phase in the world economy. Through consequent pathological learning processes, it is possible that the world has been set onto a path towards a new major catastrophe that might even resemble the First World War.
Subject Globalisation and Culture
Keyword(s) Globalization
liberalization
economic interdependence
peace and prosperity
economic growth
inequalities
Kondratieff cycles
global finance
global political economy
United States
transnational management class
world economy
DOI - identifier 10.1080/14747730500085080
Copyright notice © 2005 Taylor & Francis Group Ltd
ISSN 1474-7731
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