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A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration Jesse, M, Ezanno, P, Davis, S and Heesterbeek, J 2008, 'A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration', Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 254, no. 2, pp. 331-338. Document type: Journal Article Collection: Journal Articles Title A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration Author(s) Jesse, M Ezanno, P Davis, S Heesterbeek, J Year 2008 Journal name Journal of Theoretical Biology Volume number 254 Issue number 2 Start page 331 End page 338 Total pages 8 Publisher Academic Press Abstract The drive to understand the invasion, spread and fade out of infectious disease in structured populations has produced a variety of mathematical models for pathogen dynamics in metapopulations. Very rarely are these models fully coupled, by which we mean that the spread of an infection within a subpopulation affects the transmission between subpopulations and vice versa. It is also rare that these models are accessible to biologists, in the sense that all parameters have a clear biological meaning and the biological assumptions are explained. Here we present an accessible model that is fully coupled without being an individual-based model. We use the model to show that the duration of an epidemic has a highly non-linear relationship with the movement rate between subpopulations, with a peak in epidemic duration appearing at small movement rates and a global maximum at large movement rates. Intuitively, the first peak is due to asynchrony in the dynamics of infection between subpopulations; we confirm this intuition and also show the peak coincides with successful invasion of the infection into most subpopulations. The global maximum at relatively large movement rates occurs because then the infectious agent perceives the metapopulation as if it is a single well-mixed population wherein the effective population size is greater than the critical community size. Keyword(s) within-patch dynamics migration outbreak duration persistence stochastic DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.05.038 Copyright notice © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ISSN 0022-5193 Related Links Link Description http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.05.038 Link to Published Version   Versions Version Filter Type Tue, 14 Dec 2010, 10:42:09 EST Wed, 18 Jun 2014, 00:09:18 EST Filtered Full Citation counts:   Cited 27 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations Cited 22 times in Scopus Article | Citations Altmetric details: Access Statistics: 270 Abstract Views  -  Detailed Statistics Created: Tue, 14 Dec 2010, 08:53:00 EST by Catalyst Administrator