A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration

Jesse, M, Ezanno, P, Davis, S and Heesterbeek, J 2008, 'A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration', Journal of Theoretical Biology, vol. 254, no. 2, pp. 331-338.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title A fully coupled, mechanistic model for infectious disease dynamics in a metapopulation: Movement and epidemic duration
Author(s) Jesse, M
Ezanno, P
Davis, S
Heesterbeek, J
Year 2008
Journal name Journal of Theoretical Biology
Volume number 254
Issue number 2
Start page 331
End page 338
Total pages 8
Publisher Academic Press
Abstract The drive to understand the invasion, spread and fade out of infectious disease in structured populations has produced a variety of mathematical models for pathogen dynamics in metapopulations. Very rarely are these models fully coupled, by which we mean that the spread of an infection within a subpopulation affects the transmission between subpopulations and vice versa. It is also rare that these models are accessible to biologists, in the sense that all parameters have a clear biological meaning and the biological assumptions are explained. Here we present an accessible model that is fully coupled without being an individual-based model. We use the model to show that the duration of an epidemic has a highly non-linear relationship with the movement rate between subpopulations, with a peak in epidemic duration appearing at small movement rates and a global maximum at large movement rates. Intuitively, the first peak is due to asynchrony in the dynamics of infection between subpopulations; we confirm this intuition and also show the peak coincides with successful invasion of the infection into most subpopulations. The global maximum at relatively large movement rates occurs because then the infectious agent perceives the metapopulation as if it is a single well-mixed population wherein the effective population size is greater than the critical community size.
Keyword(s) within-patch dynamics
migration
outbreak duration
persistence
stochastic
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.jtbi.2008.05.038
Copyright notice © 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
ISSN 0022-5193
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