Application of gamma process for building deterioration prediction

Edirisinghe, R, Setunge, S and Zhang, G 2013, 'Application of gamma process for building deterioration prediction', Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities, vol. 27, no. 6, pp. 763-773.

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Application of gamma process for building deterioration prediction
Author(s) Edirisinghe, R
Setunge, S
Zhang, G
Year 2013
Journal name Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities
Volume number 27
Issue number 6
Start page 763
End page 773
Total pages 11
Publisher American Society of Civil Engineers
Abstract Deterioration trends derived using discrete condition data are commonly used in management of civil infrastructure assets. However, the high variability of condition data often makes the derivation of deterministic models difficult and unreliable. Therefore, reliabilitybased methods such as Markov chain have been used to establish trends using highly variable condition data. Although these methods have been explored in assets such as bridges and roads, the use of reliability-based methods in deterioration prediction of buildings is less common. The second-largest class of infrastructure assets owned by the local governments in Australia is community buildings. Because most existing community buildings are maturing, the local government agencies seek more reliable asset management strategies. Physical condition-based forecasting is a major component of such asset management approaches. This paper presents the development of a reliability-based methodology for the deterioration prediction of community buildings. The gamma process is considered to be an appropriate approach for predicting building element deterioration because of the associated temporal variability of degradation. The gamma deterioration process presented in this paper is a stochastic process with independent nonnegative increments having a gamma distribution with an identical scale parameter. Building inspection data from one of the local governments in Victoria are used in the model. Further, the paper discusses the analysis of the data and practical application
Subject Infrastructure Engineering and Asset Management
Building Construction Management and Project Planning
Keyword(s) Deterioration prediction
Gamma process
Building management
Community buildings.
DOI - identifier 10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000358
Copyright notice © ASCE
ISSN 0887-3828
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 15 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 7 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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