A behavioural model for quantifying flood warning effectiveness

Molinari, D and Handmer, J 2011, 'A behavioural model for quantifying flood warning effectiveness', Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 23-32.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title A behavioural model for quantifying flood warning effectiveness
Author(s) Molinari, D
Handmer, J
Year 2011
Journal name Journal of Flood Risk Management
Volume number 4
Issue number 1
Start page 23
End page 32
Publisher Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Abstract The extent of losses avoided as a result of a warning is a key measure of warning system effectiveness. Tools to estimate the impact of warnings on losses are limited to postflood analysis or estimates of potential rather than actual damages. This paper illustrates a method for the appraisal of actual damages when a flood warning is issued. The approach combines social science with engineering approaches to the problem of flood warning effectiveness. From a starting point of estimating potential damages by means of depth-damage curves, the method allows the identification of damage reduction by modelling how people respond to the warning. The model is in the form of an event tree representing human behavioural steps in the flood warning process. Two Australian case studies show how to apply the developed methodology. The results from these cases demonstrate the utility of the event-tree model that also allows the identification of weak links in the warning chain. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Flood Risk Management © 2011 The Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management.
Subject Human Geography not elsewhere classified
Keyword(s) Damage assessment
Flood warning
Warning effectiveness
DOI - identifier 10.1111/j.1753-318X.2010.01086.x
Copyright notice © 2011 The Authors
ISSN 1753-318X
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