Assessing reserve effectiveness: Application to a threatened species in a dynamic fire prone forest landscape

Todd, C, Lindenmayer, D, Stamation, K, Acevedo Cattaneo, S, Smith, S and Lumsden, L 2016, 'Assessing reserve effectiveness: Application to a threatened species in a dynamic fire prone forest landscape', Ecological Modelling, vol. 338, pp. 90-100.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title Assessing reserve effectiveness: Application to a threatened species in a dynamic fire prone forest landscape
Author(s) Todd, C
Lindenmayer, D
Stamation, K
Acevedo Cattaneo, S
Smith, S
Lumsden, L
Year 2016
Journal name Ecological Modelling
Volume number 338
Start page 90
End page 100
Total pages 11
Publisher Elsevier
Abstract Reserve systems are part of biodiversity conservation planning. However, reserves are rarely assessed for their contribution to population persistence. Here we address knowledge gaps on reserve effectiveness by developing a new approach to model protected area efficacy as a function of habitat suitability and natural disturbance regimes. We demonstrate the utility of the model through a detailed case study of the critically endangered Leadbeater's possum (Gymnobelideus leadbeateri) in south-eastern Australia. We defined reserve effectiveness for the species to be when there was no more than 5% probability of populations falling to (or below) 500 adult females in 40 generations. A reserve system established specifically for Leadbeater's possum was found inadequate to ensure population persistence for the next 40 generations, given historical disturbance, habitat decline, and future fires. Simulation modelling of potential areas of reserve suggests that, depending on management risk tolerance, between 30% to 100% of current forest extent within the range of the species may be required to ensure population persistence. This study exemplifies the need to consider the size of reserves prior to their establishment to ensure an adequate reserve design that will be effective against future disturbance for conserving threatened species.
Subject Forestry Fire Management
Landscape Ecology
Keyword(s) Gymnobelideus leadbeateri
Leadbeater's possum
Metapopulation model
Population risk analysis
Reserve adequacy
Risk assessment
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.07.021
Copyright notice © 2016 Elsevier
ISSN 0304-3800
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