A quantitative model for disruption mitigation in a supply chain

Paul, S, Sarker, R and Essam, D 2016, 'A quantitative model for disruption mitigation in a supply chain', European Journal of Operational Research, vol. 257, no. 3, pp. 881-895.

Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title A quantitative model for disruption mitigation in a supply chain
Author(s) Paul, S
Sarker, R
Essam, D
Year 2016
Journal name European Journal of Operational Research
Volume number 257
Issue number 3
Start page 881
End page 895
Total pages 15
Publisher Elsvier
Abstract In this paper, a three-stage supply chain network, with multiple manufacturing plants, distribution centers and retailers, is considered. For this supply chain system we develop three different approaches, (i) an ideal plan for an infinite planning horizon and an updated plan if there are any changes in the data, (ii) a predictive mitigation planning approach for managing predictive demand changes, which can be predicted in advance by using an appropriate tool, and (iii) a reactive mitigation plan, on a real-time basis, for managing sudden production disruptions, which cannot be predicted in advance. In predictive mitigation planning, we develop a fuzzy inference system (FIS) tool to predict the changes in future demand over the base forecast and the supply chain plan is revised accordingly well in advance. In reactive mitigation planning, we formulate a quantitative model for revising production and distribution plans, over a finite future planning period, while minimizing the total supply chain cost. We also consider a series of sudden disruptions, where a new disruption may or may not affect the recovery plans of earlier disruptions and which consequently require plans to be revised after the occurrence of each disruption on a real-time basis. An efficient heuristic, capable of dealing with sudden production disruptions on a real-time basis, is developed. We compare the heuristic results with those obtained from the LINGO optimization software for a good number of randomly generated test problems. Also, some numerical examples are presented to explain both the usefulness and advantages of the proposed approaches.
Subject Logistics and Supply Chain Management
Operations Research
Simulation and Modelling
Keyword(s) Heuristic
Production disruption
Quantitative model
Supply chain
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.08.035
Copyright notice © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
ISSN 0377-2217
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 29 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
Scopus Citation Count Cited 4 times in Scopus Article | Citations
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