An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football

Ryall, R and Bedford, A 2010, 'An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football', International Journal Of Forecasting, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 511-517.


Document type: Journal Article
Collection: Journal Articles

Title An optimized ratings-based model for forecasting Australian Rules football
Author(s) Ryall, R
Bedford, A
Year 2010
Journal name International Journal Of Forecasting
Volume number 26
Issue number 3
Start page 511
End page 517
Publisher Elsevier
Abstract Building a ratings model for forecasting the success of a sporting team requires the careful consideration of many factors, such as the home ground advantage and opponent quality. In this research, we build an optimized Elo ratings model for forecasting Australian Rules football (AFL), which incorporates the home ground advantage (ground familiarity and travel fatigue) and seasonal decay (initial ratings); ratings are then updated between games based on the difference between the expected and actual margins of victory. Match information gathered from the 2000 and 2001 seasons was used as a training set for the forward prediction of the 2002 to 2009 seasons. The model is then evaluated based on the number of predicted winners, the Average Absolute margin of Error (AAE) and the Return on Investment (ROI).
Keyword(s) Australian Rules football
Elo ratings
Modeling
Prediction
Expectation
DOI - identifier 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2010.01.001
Copyright notice © 2010 International Institute of Forecasters
ISSN 0169-2070
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Citation counts: TR Web of Science Citation Count  Cited 6 times in Thomson Reuters Web of Science Article | Citations
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